Housing Starts Up, Permits Down — What It Means on the Ground

Why the split matters: starts tell you what’s happening on the ground. They translate to near‑term tasks—foundation, framing, MEP rough‑ins, inspections—moving forward. Permits, on the other hand, are a forward indicator. A dip in permits can mean fewer brand‑new jobs getting green‑lit unless developers and homeowners restart plans. That doesn’t spell doom; it just says be choosy, tighten your handoffs, and keep prospecting so the calendar doesn’t fall off a cliff later.

Three practical takeaways you can act on this week:
1) Guard your backlog. Prioritize jobs that can actually fund and close. Confirm permit status in writing before you burn estimating time. If a client is “almost ready,” move them to a nurture lane and focus today’s energy on ready‑to‑run work.
2) Tighten subs and suppliers. When starts rise, bunching happens—especially in MEP trades and inspections. Share a quick two‑week look‑ahead with your subs, lock delivery windows with suppliers, and decide now what you’ll do if an inspection kicks a day. It’s cheaper to plan a clear Plan B than to crash a schedule the day of.
3) Price for momentum. Offer value‑engineered alternates that keep owners moving: material substitutions with similar performance, pre‑fab options that save labor, or phased scopes that let the project start while financing finalizes. The goal is to keep crews earning and clients advancing instead of stalling for the “perfect moment.”

What to say to clients right now:
“Permits have softened a bit, but active projects are moving. If we start now, we can hold today’s pricing and delivery window. If we wait, we risk losing the slot to other active starts.” That framing reassures the client while protecting your slotting and price integrity.

Regional nuance you can apply:
Starts often skew toward multifamily when rates are sticky. If you’re a residential specialist, consider partnering with a GC who is tapped into multifamily punch lists and turns—smaller, faster scopes that keep revenue constant. If you’re already in multifamily, pre‑book your finish trades earlier than usual and document acceptance criteria so punch doesn’t balloon at the end.

Cash flow guardrails:
Pair staged deposits with milestone‑based progress billing. Keep materials on separate lines so you can pre‑purchase time‑sensitive items without starving payroll. If a project is waiting on final financing, propose a limited “mobilize and measure” phase you can bill immediately while the owner closes their paperwork.

Bottom line: the ground is busy enough to keep crews working, but you should actively protect Q4 by nurturing leads and offering smart alternates. Bid what will actually happen, not what people say they wish would happen.